As the dust settles from the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the world watches closely to understand how the newly elected leader will influence global geopolitics. This highly contentious race, marked by divisions not just within the U.S. but also among global allies and adversaries, has far-reaching implications for international relations. Whether it’s U.S. foreign policy, trade relationships, or military strategy, the outcome of this election will be pivotal in shaping the future of the world order.
The Return of a Familiar Face: The Trump Factor
The 2024 U.S. election has seen former President Donald Trump return to the political spotlight, running a campaign that once again centers on “America First.” His rhetoric has captured both domestic and international attention, signaling a shift back to protectionism and unilateralism. If elected, Trump’s policies are likely to echo those of his first term, with a continued focus on trade wars, skepticism toward multilateral agreements, and a volatile approach to foreign policy.
Trump’s stance on China, Iran, and NATO will likely dominate the global geopolitical landscape. His protectionist economic policies, especially regarding China, are expected to intensify the U.S.-China rivalry, potentially leading to a decoupling of economies. Additionally, his open criticism of NATO could prompt a reevaluation of security partnerships in Europe and beyond, with significant ramifications for global security.
A New Era for Global Alliances? Harris’ Multilateral Diplomacy
In contrast, Vice President Kamala Harris represents a break from the Trump administration, advocating for multilateral diplomacy, the reinforcement of global alliances, and U.S. re-engagement with international institutions. A Harris administration would likely focus on issues such as climate change, human rights, and reinvigorating agreements like the Paris Climate Accord and World Health Organization (WHO).
While her approach might signify a return to global cooperation, the increasing influence of populism and political polarization within the U.S. could challenge the U.S.’s ability to maintain global leadership in the coming years. Nevertheless, Harris could work to strengthen ties with European Union nations and key democratic allies in Asia, particularly Japan and South Korea, as part of a broader strategy to counter China’s rise.
Middle East: Strategic Interests and Evolving Power Plays
The Middle East remains a critical arena for U.S. foreign policy, and the 2024 election results will determine how the U.S. engages in this volatile region. Under Trump, the U.S. adopted a more hands-off approach, focusing on economic and military disengagement while supporting the Abraham Accords. In contrast, Harris may take a more traditional approach to the Middle East, working to stabilize the region and potentially revisiting nuclear negotiations with Iran.
Instability in Syria, Yemen, and Iraq remains a persistent issue, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues to be a central concern. The new administration’s foreign policy will significantly impact these issues, as well as broader security dynamics within the Gulf States.
Asia-Pacific: The U.S.-China Rivalry Intensifies
The Asia-Pacific region will remain a focal point of geopolitical tension, particularly in light of the ongoing U.S.-China rivalry. Trump’s previous administration took a hard stance on China, with trade wars, tariffs, and confrontations over the South China Sea and Taiwan. If Trump is re-elected, we can expect more of the same: aggressive economic policies and a tough approach to Chinese expansionism.
Meanwhile, Harris may focus on creating a strategic alliance with Indo-Pacific nations to counter China’s growing influence, advocating for a more diplomatic and collaborative strategy. However, the challenge remains: Can the U.S. balance its approach to China without provoking a more significant geopolitical conflict in the region?
The Global Economy: The U.S. Path Forward
The global economy will undoubtedly be shaped by the outcome of the 2024 election. From trade wars and global supply chains to energy crises and inflation, the U.S.’s fiscal policies will have a ripple effect across the globe. Under a Trump administration, global markets may see a continuation of protectionist measures, which could disrupt international trade and lead to further market volatility.
Alternatively, a Harris-led administration may focus on economic recovery through international partnerships, free trade agreements, and strengthened economic ties with multilateral institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank. This approach could foster a more stable economic environment, particularly for emerging markets in Africa and Asia.
Conclusion: A World at a Geopolitical Crossroads
The 2024 U.S. presidential election is more than just a contest between two political figures—it represents a turning point for the future of global geopolitics. With tensions rising across multiple regions—from Asia to the Middle East—the outcome will have far-reaching consequences for international security, trade, and global governance.
The U.S. finds itself at a crossroads: Will it continue to retreat into isolationism, or will it embrace a new era of international cooperation? As the global order shifts, the U.S. presidential outcome will undoubtedly shape the course of world affairs in the years to come. The Universal Affairs will continue to monitor and analyze these developments, providing insights into how global politics will evolve in response to this pivotal election.